Badger,
I am placing heavier bets on Seagate then I am on Quantum and have used the newest downturn in the industry to accumulate larger positions in SEG, MXTR, and HTCH. I have a current losing position in MXTR that I averaged down believing they have been especially depressed by Hyundai selling that will end before quarterly reporting. I have a small amount of QNTM which I am holding. I like QNTM's plan for tracking stock and very strong position in corporate data management which is a sector that will see unparalled growth as the tides of netcentricity rise. I would also note that Lawrence Kam, whose opinion I respect, believes that Quantum executes on new disk drive designs better then Seagate, an arguable point but with some pretty solid rationale in history. I do not believe it is currently the case however and feel that Quantum has been rocked harder in the DD downturn then Seagate owing to desktop exposure. They won a solid position there with "Bigfoot", beating Seagate by a mile, only to get buffeted by competition from Maxtor, Samsung, and a desperate WDC. In addition Quantum was too slow to shoot their head division in the ...well...head. Finally, while Quantum has DLT and juke boxes for corporate data farming, they lack a very solid position in high end disk drives. It really is that sector I like the most and believe you need to be there to be in the DD business.
Quantum's announced intention to issue tracking stocks and their foray into the corporate sector with SANs is very interesting IMO. Their current depressed valuation makes an attractive entry point. I think they are a buy with a (combined) $ 38.00 price target in one year.
Thanks for your kind remarks.
Best,
Stitch |
