Fred,
No offense, but everyone here thought that $70 was a buying opportunity. Then $69, then $68, then $67, then $66, then $65, ..........now $56 5/8?!?!? I don't pretend to know when it will be time to get in. But I still don't think the time is now.
Bottom fishing is extremely dangerous. It's best to wait until a stock stablizes and starts to move higher.
I learned my lesson very well, and very early---I thought I was smart by bottom fishing in the semis in late 1995. WRONG! Lucky for me, the money I lost bought me invaluable knowledge/experience. "I will never bottom-fish [a momentum stock] again...."
Fred, I fear that there might be a horrible price war as USRX and ROK jockey for 56k market share. I'm not willing to buy USRX, until it looks like my fears are/were unfounded. Hopefully, I'll b buying USRX at that point--not at the bottom, but FAR from the top. That's good enough for me. Clearly, I'm not as brave as you....but that's fine, we simply have different styles of trading.
>There is nothing proprietary about x86 architecture. I guess this means that CPU's will soon become a commoditity. After all x86 architecture chips are available from Cyrix and AMD.>
Jeez. No, x86 isn't proprietary, BUT!....You need billion dollar fabrication plants to make them, assuming that you can overcome the trying challenge of engineering a chip in the first place. But even if you can go this, Intel's brand name puts you in one hell of a disadvantage (yes, USRX has a brand name, but nothing like Intel's). There is also the fact that high-end CPUs are in short supply--since box-makers want to remain on Intel's priority list, they aren't going to want to piss them off by doing business with either AMD or CYRX. And oh by the way, AMD has a fab, but they don't have a fraction of the volume capacity that Intel has. As for CYRX, they are fabless, and have to make use of IBM's facilities whenever IBM isn't using them.
My point is, that there is a very high barrier of entry in the CPU business. Not so with modems, ere all it takes is a Rockwell chip, some glue....(joke).
Yeah, I was touting MOT. Like I said, I'm not a value investor (I agree that it is pretty high priced). Either way, after I touted it (for momentum/psychological reasons, not fundamentals), it went up like 10 points or so within a couple of weeks. Not bad. I sold about 2 weeks ago at $68 and some change. That proves my point about how fundamental valuations are that important--especially in the short term.
Sal Habash |
