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Non-Tech : Simula (SMU)

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To: Jaime H. Ayalde who wrote (1553)3/31/1999 10:44:00 AM
From: Noblesse Oblige  Read Replies (1) of 1671
 
Hi Jaime...

You didn't listen to the conference call. The fourth quarter had approximately $2 million in certification expenses (this will decline to roughly $250,000 by quarter two), and $5 million in writedowns for unabsorbed production expense and inventory.

These expenses will not be repeated.

Going forward, the airline seat business will require virtually no certifications. Thus, there will be a $750,000 - $1,000,000 "savings" per quarter from here on out.

That amounts to approximately 5 cents after tax earnings for each of the three remaining quarters of 1999, and that ASSUMES that there will be no further improvement in the way they run that business.

When one adds that to the $.30 -$.35 that Simula has suggested it would earn assuming "breakeven" in San Diego throughout 1999, one can easily get to earnings of about a half a buck, far better than at any time since we have collectively owned the stock.

This has been a hellacious position, and I haven't posted much in quite some time...waiting to see evidence that the company has made an operational "bottom".

I finally think we are there.

Take care of yourself, Jaime.
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