American International Petroleum Corp Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : American International Petroleum Corp

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To: DEER HUNTER who wrote (9631)	3/31/1999 11:49:00 AM
From: DRRISK	Read Replies (2) of 11888

DH, I still expect a 10-1 return on AIPN and am prepared to wait for that return. I appreciate your concern and your pointing to the universe of other stks. This thread, however is to discuss AIPN and I have tried to be objective through out my posting as to this company. I understand the wide spread frustration, which I share in but this is an investment, not a wife and the emotions are irrelevant to me. I have no regret over the investment just a learning experience that will enhance my acuity going forward. Nonetheless the stk is trading at irrational levels even if you believe that all the CD's that management has put in place are to be converted into stock. Razor has kindly provided an analysis that his firm uses from Altman for bankruptcy prediction that takes into account the fact that the company is suffering from the massive dilution of the stock that has occurred from 12/97 to 9/30/98 and the increased CD debt that the company still owes as a function of their efforts in Kaz as well as at the refinery. The risks of this investment are clearly highlighted in this quantitative formula that highlights what we all know. Like all formalistic approaches it suffers from the fact that it is dependent on financial factors that do not readily reflect the entrepreneurial nature of a “wildcatter” venture that is AIPN. The reliance of MVE in this instance skews the reality of the valuation in 1997 which in fact makes the company at that time look strong when in fact it was much weaker then it is now. Razor, this is my only comment as to this Altman Predictor model, otherwise I will put it in my bag of tricks and thank you for it. My feeling about the CC is that it further highlights my sentiment about the following: GF: B- DF: F LO: C- GC: C MD: F Those marks are my grades of management's performance at that call. It was a poorly advised call and the remarks by DF about a reverse were ill conceived and inappropriate. IMHO, He should be relieved of his position for them. As to the other aspects of the call I feel that CSFB needs to step up to the plate and that the new COO will hopefully have their pleasing. The comment of GF about the CSFB note to Kaz about the Chag being awarded on the basis of their support is important. I feel that the hold up on Chag is a turning point in the life of AIPN and that GF knows that his reign is over. A new COO who is a puppet would only incense an already bad situation. The quality of this hire will say a lot about the direction of the company to me. Both Gene Chew and Lorrie Olliver are not CEO material and at this point we need an experienced connected Oilman. This in concert with the award of Chag and the stepping up of CSFB would change the dynamics of the company. Short-term if Pallidin takes out the Hunts it will indicate that they are believers but this is a Band-Aid and in many ways only prolongs the day of reckoning on the CD issue. Nonetheless, it would provide a relief rally and time for CSFB to take the reins along with the new COO and hopefully a CFO that he selects. Without these actions I believe that the company is not serious about changing their poor reputation on Wall Street and that we will get more of the same stock action if not worse. The other goodies that this company has will mean nothing IMHO without the above changes. So DH that is why I say it is up to management to take the bitter medicine we have all swallowed the past year and take themselves out of the mix. Their justifications at the beginning of the CC about the CD funding are despicable and fall on deaf ears. DrRisk

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