Wayne, I do know that there is a comparison out there of the old CPI and it is certainly not as benevolent as the current gelded CPI. It was on one of the URLs Mike Magner quoted, but I don't remember where.
As a guy who owned and traded more bonds, and certainly more successfully, than just about anyone in the mid-1980s, I didn't pay much attention to CPI. I looked at bond supply and demand itself. That is the key. My feeling is that PPI, CPI and even the Fed are lagging indicators. Right now, I see huge supply and very low demand. I don't see anyone over here screaming, "you have to lock in rates now," the way they are screaming, "buy Dell and get rich."
However, part of this is seasonal. Late March, early April is often a bad time for Treasuries. But that is only a small part of the problem in the corporate and muni arenas.
MB |
