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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: John Pitera who wrote (29293)3/31/1999 3:02:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005  Read Replies (1) of 86076
 
John, as much as the large market participants would like to see a shake-out, it is very likely that an engineered shake-out can snow-ball in to a cascade of selling - especially given the poor breadth. So, I believe that a lot of folks are holding on and holding their breath. The reluctance to sell comes from the fear of missing out further gains. IN the mean time I believe most are crossing fingers and hoping that the other guys will not sell first. As a collective mechanism to control emotions, the current market represents extreme states of investor psychology. No doubt that this state is precipitated by Fed's decision to lower the rates at a time when markets were reaching to an equilibrium. By doing so, the Feds would like us to believe that they have "restored" the confidence in the financial markets. The fact of the matter is that they have helped create a situation where natural reactions to news have become unnatural. In other words, they have taken the element of "fear" in the markets.

This late in the game, after 15 years of stock market advances, it is really a folly to "engineer" the markets - IMO. Given the absolute lack of fear in this market, the next natural state is that except for the remaining 5 bears, (who obviously have no money left), all market participants would have placed their bets on the long side. When the next bad news on the big-front hits, the proverbial question that would prevail is: "sell to whom?"

I may have been obsessed with this "sell to whom" scenario. But it is quite possible that we are headed in that direction.
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