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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 228.68

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Nov 17 3:59 PM EST

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To: David Rosenthal who wrote (29320)	3/31/1999 5:30:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) of 70976

>>Thank you very much for your detailed answer. I wasn't aware that there was such drastic mask cost issues related to using the current generation. << Yes, and it will probably get worse for 193 nm lithography and beyond. Several people have suggested that the choice between post-optical litho approaches will come down to the tradeoff between mask and equipment costs. >>I am interpreting that, for the most part, there is enough mask-making capacity out there currently to handle larger feature sizes.<< Probably. Unless overall demand for chips jumps faster than anyone expects. >>Therefore, if you can sell more product then shrinks are the way to go. And if you can sell more product then you have more money to do other things. However, if you are having trouble selling what you make now, then there is no reason to do anything that will raise expenses.<< Except that most of the economic benefits of shrinks accrue to the first few companies to make the switch. So if you think your competitors are about to shrink, you should to. Except doing that in an already depressed market drives prices down (overcapacity) even further. Does your brain hurt yet? This complexity is one of the reasons why I'd rather write about semiconductor manufacturing than invest in it. Katherine

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