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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 671.91

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Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: J. P. who wrote (9597)	3/31/1999 6:29:00 PM
From: Compadre	Read Replies (3) of 99985

jp: <<Re: Nasdaq>> I know that your question is addressed to Donald. But I want to point out something in your price target for the Index that does not make sense to me. It is very true that these 9 mo. cycles are very regular for the NAZ. It is also true that the Index will meet with its 200 dma in each cycle. But it is not true that it will come down to meet it every time. In the cycle of 1995-96, the NAZ was just as high above the 200 dma as today. Eventually the 200 dma came up the meet the Index. The NAZ was flat for the four month between 9/95 to 1/96. I am not claiming that it will not fall this time, just saying that it is not a golden rule. The best way to play this is just let the market tell you where it is going rather than anticipating the move. Just be patient and the market will tell you when it is ready to come down. And by the way, my sell signals for mutual fund switch are still true for todays close. Regards, Jaime

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