Al-- We are like always little ahead with analysis.. this is what I saw just now the nexus of evil makers...
Russia Helping Iraq Upgrade Air Defenses
Intelligence officials now admit that Serb and Iraqi defense
officials have met and collaborated in recent months on anti-
aircraft operations. Russia is now supplying sophisticated radar
systems to Iraq. The possibility of a second front is
increasing.
Analysis:
One of the critical issues in the Kosovo war is the intention and
capabilities of Iraq. It must be remembered that many of the
same nations that are currently engaged in the Kosovo air
campaign are also, simultaneously, engaged in an air war in Iraq.
As NATO intensifies the air war over Kosovo, the possibility of
an intensification of the air war over Iraq poses an important
strategic challenge by diverting aircraft and logistical support.
Recent reports emerging in the press tend to confirm Stratfor's
long-standing view that Yugoslavia and Iraq collaborated in the
run-up to the current conflict. According to the Associated
Press, for example, U.S. intelligence now has evidence that
Yugoslav technicians met with Iraqi specialists in Baghdad in
February to help prepare Yugoslavia for an air war. Since both
sides have similar equipment and are facing similar aircraft, the
Yugoslav military quite rationally wanted to learn whatever
lessons the Iraqis had to teach them.
It is obviously in the interest of both countries to cooperate
strategically as well as technically. Anything that forces the
United States to divide its scarce air campaign resources
benefits both. Thus, a report from the IBC from Baghdad,
claiming that Iraq is distributing advanced radar guidance
systems for the SAM-6 surface-to-air missile system, is
particularly significant. According to the report, Iraq is
intensely engaged in upgrading its anti-air missile grid. Abed
Hameed Hmoud, special secretary to Saddam and a member of the
Presidential Council, is said to be personally supervising the
installations of the systems at the Presidential Palaces, air
bases and other critical installations. The article further
states that both the Northern and Southern Corps of the
Republican Guards are receiving new computing equipment and
small, advanced Russian-made radar units as well as technicians.
If these reports are true, and we think that to be likely, the
Russians are now engaged in a dramatic re-supply of equipment to
the Iraqis. There have been numerous reports from sources in
Russia about such a re-supply, and the IBC report is merely
confirming the arrival and deployment of this equipment. The
upgrading of the Iraqi air defense grid has the potential of
posing serious problems for allied pilots on missions in Iraq,
particularly if new systems have been distributed inside the no-
fly zones where routine air patrols are carried out. We note,
however, that we can find no evidence of any U.S. or allied air
strikes in Iraq at this time. This indicates that both sides are
lying low for the moment.
The new systems increase the ability of the Iraqis to engage U.S.
and allied pilots on missions in this area. The standard U.S.
response to such an engagement is first to target the radar and
missile sites. By substantially increasing the number of such
sites, Iraq is able to dictate a quickened tempo of allied air
operations. Even if they lose some of their equipment, if the
Russians have provided equipment in sufficient numbers to provide
redundancy, Iraq will be able to dictate the level of allied
operations. At a time when U.S. logistical capabilities required
to support air operations will be heavily tilted toward Serbia,
increased air operations over Iraq might pose a serious burden.
If, on one hand, the U.S. declines to increase its air
operations, it opens a window of opportunity for Saddam. If, on
the other hand, the U.S. does increase air operations in Iraq, it
could, over the long haul, degrade its logistical capabilities.
Two front wars are the traditional fear of any power. There is
no question but that the U.S. can handle one intense and one low-
grade air war. There is some question whether the U.S. has the
supplies and transport systems needed to sustain two simultaneous
high-intensity air campaigns. There is no doubt but that Saddam
and Milosevic understand that they may have an opportunity to
pose serious problems for the United States. Milosevic, of
course, has done his part. Now the question is whether Saddam
will up the ante.
It is not certain that there is any clear comprehensive
warfighting agreement between Yugoslavia and Iraq, nor that if
there were, the Iraqis would honor it. But there is a real
window of opportunity available to Iraq and some indication that
it is preparing to exploit it, with Russian help. When we factor
in the unknown North Korean factor, we can see that there are
some important reasons why the United States, in particular, will
want to conclude the Kosovo air operation as quickly as possible.
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