If the problems the company has had are not reflected in the current price, then any long term Accent shareholders must be only holding the stock to sell at a bankruptcy price to offset their gains. I mean, can it get any worse? 34 to 4 is not a way to stay solvent as an investor or a company.
That said I called the company's New York investor relations office and asked when Accent was releasing its '96 earnings report. Last year they issued their report on Fed. 21 and also other quarterly reports approximately 7 weeks after the conclusion of the quarter. I was told that Accent plans to release its '96 results in mid March. No explanation (suprise, suprise) was provided for the later release date.
I assume that when you bring on a new President with great marketing skills and move out and up the founder who is a skilled scientist but arguably a terrible businessman, all before your year end results are announced, that means the company's performance stunk. But everyone knows the tail end of '96 was terrible, e.g. 34 to 4.
So I view the new President as a positive. It means that the real money people behind Accent have asserted control over the rocket scientists and are trying to jump start the company. Certainly, the key shareholders have a lot more to lose if Accent fails than you, myself and any other small investor. The company has updated its web site and is promoting its products at major conventions in the Spring.
More importantly, I hope that Accent has forged deeper alliances than those announced to date -- wouldn't it be great if Microsoft or Sony bought a stake in the company? Today's SF Examiner business section had an article forecasting the Asian internet market to top 100 million users in less than 3 years -- why not preload Accent software in PCs sold in Asia?
I also hope that the March release date is designed to emphasize progress in '97, e.g. yes '96 was a failure, but already in '97 we've turned things around. The later the results are announced the easier this is to document, if businss has improved.
Am I crazy? You are listening to a value investor. Remember when everyone said Micron was dead at 18. Well, I have recently purchased a fair chunk of Accent with my proceeds from my sale of Micron -- I bought in when it dropped under 20 and sold around 34. Not bad for just a few months of owning a stock. (Of course, I also thought Apple hit bottom in the low 20's).
Well, enough rambling -- it is a big risk, but Accent is the kind of stock that you could triple your return on in less than 3 months if in mid March they come out with positive earnings, release new products and announce significant alliances -- all of which I assume they are striving their best to achieve. |
