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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 230.00+1.7%10:00 AM EST
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To: Duker who wrote (29325)3/31/1999 10:36:00 PM
From: Gottfried  Read Replies (2) of 70976
 
Duker, went to the meeting today. Asked Mr. Morgan if the slides
shown could be put on the web site. One of his helpers said yes, by
tomorrow. So lets watch that web site. I took a few notes, nothing
really new was said. Expect cap spending down 7.7% for 1999. But
since there is a reduced percentage for brick and mortar, equipment
spending should actually be up slightly. 14% PC unit growth for '99.
A PC has $400 of silicon in it, a car $230 and a cell phone $40. DRAM cycles drive semiconductor market [duh]. May have a DRAM capacity challenge in 2000. 300 mm may begin 2000. Expect 2.2x semi equip
growth 1998 to 2003. Even if AMAT market share does not grow from here, they could be a $10B company in 2003. Wafer fab equip to go
to $34.7B. Equipment good for 3 - 4 generations of chips. AMAT
gained market share in 1998. #1 in CMP with 40% share.

$844m new system orders 1Q99. CMP growth rate phenomenal.
Total cap spending in 2003 ~$60B. [over 20% of that land and
buildings. In 1999 % for land/buildings down from 1998.]

There may be mistakes in my notes.

Gottfried
PS: they served veggies, cookies and Haagen Dasz icecream as
well as Starbucks coffee. I saw a guy who looked like Mike
Murphy there.
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