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For all: Here's an update to my post #2111 and my post immediately preceding this one. First, I'm disappointed that there's no dialogue taking place here. Is everyone so demoralized that they're in denial? I reiterate my earlier posts. Please note my comment about DELL being undervalued was confirmed a week later by no less than the doyen of Wall Street, Abby Cohen, and yes, I am very happy with my long Dell position. Now, for the record, I remain equally bullish about APCC. Yes, it's not widely followed, but I see such things as: the industry sector is entering its traditionally slow period in the earnings cycle, possibly exacerbated by Y2K concerns, two of the analysts are highly respected Goldman Sachs and Tucker Anthony, their auditor is KPMC Peat Marwick (in my opinion they're the best of the biggies), on May 11 they're participating in Salomons's first annual electronic supply chain conference (big exposure with a possible new analyst). Phone contact with IR reveals they're comfortable with Q1 estimates and do not anticipate any secondary offerings (why should they, they have no debt and if additional capital is needed, it would be preferable to issue bonds than dilute shares with a secondary). They're presently trading at a substantial discount to earnings. PE around 18 (well below the NASDAQ and SPX) but with earnings projected at 24%. Technicals say OBV is at a historic bottom. Now for speculation: No earnings warnings as yet, and I expect none. They probably have until next week before they enter the quiet period (I expect earnings to be announced at shareholder meeting on May 4). APCC's last two of their five stock splits were 2 for 1 and the presplit price was above $40.00. I do not believe the board will rescind the split, but I also believe they will not split a stock trading at the present level. Thus, I expect announcement of a buyback. I think they actually stand to benefit from Y2K, esp. for their server product line. Now, here's the kicker: I'm putting my money where my mouth (type) is on this one. I am holding a total of 150 September 35 calls (yes, that represents 15K shares of common!) at an average price of about $3.50 per contract, including a large block I purchased this afternoon. After the split on May 28, those calls will be doubled to 300 contracts at a strike price of $17.50 and an average purchase price of $1.75 each. Does anyone seriously believe APCC will be trading below $17.50 within one month post split? This is going to make a fortune and as you can see, I'm pumped. Any and all comments welcome! |
