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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (41409)4/1/1999 12:01:00 AM
From: Gary Burton  Read Replies (2) of 95453
 
Slider re EW targets--From 47, it is fairly easy to count 5 waves up to the recent 71ish, a gain of about 24 pts. Wave 3 of the sequence 'extended' which means that it itself stretched into 5 smaller waves. Under EW, usually one of the up waves 'extends' and usually it is Wave 3. So, I'm comfortable that we have completed 5 waves up and that the 24 pts is the end of this particular sequence.... EW theory then says that fater 5 waves up, the target for the retrace is usually into the area of the '4th wave of wave 3' of the Wave just completed. It also says that the first Wave up is often retraced 50-62%. Interestingly, the '4th wave of wave 3' area is the 58-63 area while a 50% retrace puts us at 59/60. That is why I think it would be quite normal for the current dip to continue meandering down towards 60ish instead of turning around in here and taking out 72 going to 80....the 77/80 area is the next key resistance pt but we will probably need to go down more first to regroup before we can take out 72 and go higher... My best guess is that we may rally Thurs or Mon but it will fail below 71 and then head still lower...I am NOT saying it can't keep going higher from here, just that the odds favour us going somewhat lower first. ...fwiw I suspect the XOI may rally Thurs and therefore maybe also the OSX, but if so I suspect the OSX will fail. My 2c
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