Bernard:
I would think ICO would find it impossible now to raise the cash they need unless their partners were willing to cough it up. I doubt that. So, they are likely in a difficult way right now. There is absolutely no trading interest in the ICO bonds right now, and they yield in the range of 26-30%. Thus, Ellipso et. al. don't have a prayer. The delays are good for current players.
Back of the envelope calculations. Each share of Loral when you deduct G* is worth approximately 9.5. That gives Loral a market cap of $2.7 billion, or $3.1 billion fully diluted. Back out that "oh-so-popular" but "oh-so-wrong" 1X sales figure for SS/L, and that leaves approximately $1.2 billion. Each satellite-Telstar 4, 5, and 6, Orion 1, and Orion 3(I'm an optimist) is worth $250 million, but we'll give them a value of $200 million. That's a billion there. Throw in Telstar 7 and Orion 2 in their various stages of completion and you are over the asset value being placed on Loral now. But wait--throw in half of SatMex's three sats, Europe*Star, Data Services, CD Radio, Agila II, Brazil Slot, all the other orbital real estate, etc. But wait again, that is simply an asset valuation. These assets produce cash flow. Put a value on that stream as well. |
