Sorry, noteye, out of touch for a few days...
No, nothing personal against the Koogmeister or anything at all like that. And yes, YHOO is the only one of the NetNut stocks that I tend to write about, mainly because it is so, so incredibly wacky. The company does NOT have a viable business strategy (unlike, e.g. AMZN) so that its market performance is truly the most extraordinary single-stock performance in the history of Wall Street. So, yes, that moves me to comment...
I won't bore you with repetition (since you've obviously gone through my other posts) but for new folks who may be watching, here it is in a nutshell: YHOO's future performance is based around the success of web advertising. Everyone in the ad business (myself included, as a newspaper publisher) knows that web advertising isn't working and won't work. Given that, YHOO (unlike AOL, AMZN) is up sh*t creek without a paddle. It is only a matter of time (weeks? months? but probably no more than eight or nine.) before the market figures out what everybody in the advertising business already knows. When that happens, people will run from this stock faster than Albanian Kosovars running for the Macedonian border....
So, yes, my friend, I have a special interest in YHOO. It boggles my mind that it has performed so well on so little in the way of prospects. More power to all who've made money; timing after all is everything. But those who have been big winners should not confuse good fortune in the short-term with shrewdness in getting in on the ground floor of a stock with a bountiful future. Unless Tim and Co. can figure out a way to make money doing other things besides selling ads (they are trying desperately, of course, to leverage their brand name and do just that), their goose is cooked. It's only a matter of time...
You can of course choose to bet on the genius of the YHOO managers to figure their way out of this trap, and you may get lucky. But there are less risky things to bet the ranch on...
Thanks! |
