IMPORTANT ECONOMIC UPDATE FROM DORSEY, WRIGHT & ASSOC.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The latest Commerce Department reports indicate that sales
and business figures show an easing up of the rate at which business is easing off, which is taken as proof of Mr. Clinton's contention that there is a slow but noticeable slowing up of the slowdown. In order to clarify the cautious terminology of the experts, it should be noted that a slowing up of the slowdown is not as good as anupturn in the down curve, but it is a good deal better than either a
speedup of the slowdown or a deepening of the down curve; and it
does suggest that the climate is about right for an adjustment to the
readjustment. Regarding unemployment, we find a definite decrease in the rate of increase, which clearly shows that there is a letting up of the letdown. Of course, if the slowdown should speed up, the derease in the rate of increase of unemployment would turn into an increase in the rate of decrease of employment. In other words, the deceleration would be accelerated. But the indicators suggest rather a leveling off, referred to on Wall Street as bumping along rock bottom. This will be followed by a gentle pickup, then a faster pickup, a slowdown of the pickup, and finally a leveling off again.
However, it is hard to tell before a slowdown is completed
whether the pickup is going to be fast, particularly because of such
factors as the strength of recovery in the downturn and the power of
the decline in the upturn.
Yes, today is April Fool's. We thought a little levity was
needed and would cheer everyone up. Of course, some people may be
able to understand the above forecast. It's about what we hear from
Washington every day. However, if you do understand it then you may
want to consider taking a little vacation time.
Tom
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