Josef, the best I could find was one poster's estimate of $3/share on one project and another two projects each contributing $1/share, thus a "forecast" sometime in the future of $5/share, of course, if I understood the analysis correctly.
The $3/share assumed a yearly revenue stream from the project (and forgive me for not remembering all the acronyms) of $75 MM and assumed gross margins of 50%. Frankly, I do not know of any other defense contractor getting gross margins of 50%. Gardner pulled its support from OVON after it became clear to him that he should not pour good money after bad. However, even if we use such a generous assumption on 6 MM shares, the $3/shares come to 24% of sales which will bring EBIT to 40%, not counting any interest on the financing between here and there. That leaves only 10% for SG&A and R&D or $7.5 MM, but right now these are already at $13 MM and growing, and right now their gross margins are less than 10%. Thus I am not so sure that the $3 to $5 forecast of potential earnings per share is even close to reality.
Note, I have not included potential dilution (I used the current 6 MM shares) nor interest on future financing. I used 40% overall tax rate and if they operate in WA, this might be "generous".
Zeev |
