Hi Victor,
Off home now to sup some of Scotland's finest amber liquid... Here is
my parting shot:
CPQ: February Sell-Through Data - No Snap-back
09:07am EST 31-Mar-99 PaineWebber (Young, Don)
* The StoreBoard February sell-through data showed only a modest pick-up in PC
sales out of the U.S channel system from the slowdown seen in January, and
Compaq fared no better than the general industry.
* Compaq's share of the overall dealer market grew from 29% to 31%
sequentially, largely at the expense of the white box vendors, who lost two
points of market share. Compaq's bright spot was gaining back the dealer
desktop share that it had lost in January.
* Compaq's dealer notebooks lost two points of market share to 21% as IBM's
dealer notebooks dominated again in February (54%).
* In the retail channel, Compaq lost a point of market share, falling to 31%,
as a two point share gain in retail notebooks was offset by a share loss in
desktops (down 2 points to 31%).
* Compaq's overall ASP declined slightly to $1392 from $1403 in January.
Without the seasonal mix shift towards higher-priced commercial products, the
ASP decline could have been steeper, since declines in dealer notebooks and
servers were significant.
* We recommend that clients underweigh PC hardware manufacturers, as a recovery
in PC demand appears unlikely over the next several quarters. Since the
beginning of 1999, we have reduced our annual estimates for CPQ, DELL, HWP,
and MUEI to reflect our concerns of slower PC demand. The results of our SMB
survey suggest that our estimates may still prove to be too aggressive.
Quarterly Earnings Per Share
1998A 1999E 2000E
1Q $0.01 $0.34
2Q 0.02 0.41
3Q 0.07 0.48
4Q 0.39 0.61
Year $0.48 $1.85
FC Cons.: $0.47 $1.75 $2.26
Revs.(MM): $35,426 $43,000
P/E: 67.6x 17.5x
Risks: Compaq investments contain a high level of risk from fast changes in
technology, industry conditions and competitive pressure.
|
