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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!
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To: bob who wrote (4529)4/1/1999 11:16:00 AM
From: Don Lloyd  Read Replies (1) of 10309
 
All,

Can anyone make any sense of the reported quarterly EPS estimates for WIND?

According to a Schwab report derived from First Call, the Quarterly EPS trend is as follows -

Actual -

FY99Q2 - $0.14
FY99Q3 - $0.17
FY99Q4 - $0.20

Estimates -

FY00Q1 - $0.14
FY00Q2 - $0.18

The same trend shows up in the Annual EPS numbers, as follows -

Actual -

FY1998 - $0.43
FY1999 - $0.61 +41.9%

Estimates -

FY2000 - $0.77 +26.2%
FY2001 - $1.06 +37.7%

Unless there is some unknown stock dilution being factored in, these estimate numbers don't make any sense in the absence of any real business degradation. As hard as it is to believe, there is some reason to suspect that the estimate numbers are the result of an incorrect split adjustment. In particular, the estimate numbers appear to have been adjusted for a 2:1 split instead of the actual 3:2. If all the estimates are corrected by increasing them all by a third, the following is the result -

Actual -

FY99Q2 - $0.14
FY99Q3 - $0.17
FY99Q4 - $0.20

Estimates -

FY00Q1 - $0.14 -> $0.187
FY00Q2 - $0.18 -> $0.24

Annual

Actual -

FY1998 - $0.43
FY1999 - $0.61 +41.9%

Estimates -

FY2000 - $0.77 +26.2% --> $1.027 +68.4%
FY2001 - $1.06 +37.7% --> $1.413 +37.6%

What am I missing?

Regards, Don

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