Donald, AMAT is of course the premier semi equip company and they have the cash to weather another down cycle even if it occurred here and now. That is the reason that institutions flock to it every time they sniff a potential industry turn around. Because they are so big however, they cannot hide in unique niches like VECO has (and performance wise, VECO did much better than AMAT in the last cyclical decline). Of course, when all the institutions will want out of the door all at once, even mighty AMAT's stock will suffer.
I think that ETEC preannouncement and the LRCX/NVLS shotgun wedding may indicate that we have a minor storm ahead again, but I do not think it will last more than a measly quarter or so. Well, that is what I have been saying for some time, I have my usual next Wednesday as the trend reversal and the official start of the relapse. I know, those in VECO feel like if the relapse has been around for the last two months (VBG), but the rest of the market, not really, the NAZ is still within shouting distance of a new high and so is the DOW.
Zeev |
