Jody, here is my speculation from early February. With hindsight the Berlex launch took longer than I had anticipated, but, since we only get 25% of sales it won't affect the bottom line much. I'd also lean towards expenses being a little higher than I had guessed. Also, the tax sale credits of $4,000,000 did not happen this quarter. So, with all that said I'd guess about a profit of slightly over $1 mil.
My Feb guess details were:>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Prediction--1st Qtr 1999 NIBT
by: Latitude65
13214 of 14395
For sales: ProstaScint sales averaging 1,050 kits per month(900 in Jan, 1000 in Feb, & 1,250 in Mar) at 13
weeks at $710 each is revenue of $2,236,000. OncoScint sales of 55 per week at $300 each at 13 weeks is
$214,000.
Quad Royalties: 23 vials per week for the first nine weeks and 50 per week for the last four weeks at
$2,200 each at 13 weeks and our share is 25% or a total to Cytogen of $222,000. I am assuming a Berlex
kick-off in about a week.
Contract Manufacturing: This number varies alot and we will be winding down and ending these contracts
which means we may have a flurry of end of contract activity or a lack of activity. My guess is $500,000.
Anyways, TOTAL REVENUES will be $3,172,000...........
Cost of sales: Minimum payment to Dow Chemical is $125,000. Space usage from Bard/Perdue is
$115,000. We will get charged for salaries on a usage basis and I have figured sales into the percentages
below. Cost of Quad is Zero. Cost of ProstaScint is 35% of sales or $783,000. Cost of OncoScint is 35%
of sales or $75,000. Cost of Contract Manufacturing is 70% of sales or $350,000. Bard Commission is
increased this quarter to 20% to allow for the extra incentive offerred them at their annual January team
meeting. So 20% of sales is $447,000....
Total COST OF SALES is $1,895,000........
Total Marketing expense is increasing in line with strategic plan to sell, sell, sell.... They will be $1,300,000.
We continue to add PIE sites in this category.
Total R&D is decreasing to $1,100,000 and includes some AxSmell monies....
Total G&A is $1,000,000.....
Total Net Interest Income rises to $100,000 due to the increased cash in our bank accounts.
So, this leaves a loss from normal operations of $2,023,000...A very good improvement.
Add to this a one time gain on the sale on manufacturing assets to Bard/Perdue in the amount of $3,300,000.
Add to this a gain on the sales on tax loss carryforwards and NJ R&D creits in the amount of $4,000,000.
Leaves us a final NIBT profit for the 1st qtr of $5,277,000.
The above includes no estimates for any incoming License fees of which I don't know of any that would be
due and nothing for incoming Axcell business of which I think there will be none by the end of March. Also,
there will be some more tax credit sales later in 1999. Overall, I believe that my expenses above are
conservative and am quite hopeful that the actuals will be less.
Pick away......
Dan
Posted: Feb 14 1999 6:01PM EST as a reply to: Msg 1 by YahooFinance |
