An important story for you traders out there. I'm posting this in hopes it can save some you the agony I've experienced trying to time the market over the years.
The one thing I remember hearing a long time ago, however, that I always held close was that ONE good stock can make all the difference in the world. Find it and keep it. Some day, your patience will be rewarded. I don't think I need to say which one that was : ) For those of you who traded out of the Q for a quick profit of late, learn the lesson well. The fun part is that the Q's run has just begun. There's plenty of time to climb back on to the Q's 10 bagger run.
This story is about my own journey through this market game. Enjoy. Q has made phases 1-7 much more pleasant to think about.
Phase one: I didn't know a damn thing 7 years ago, but picked a few
stocks that had charts IBD flagged as good picks and were pulled up with some financial software I bought: Innovex and Inter-Tel. Both were winners.
Phase two: Encouraged, I kept buying and selling things based on "charts" mixed with fundamentals. I finally go into the red. I buy Proxima because I believed their story: Dishonest management at Proxima causes me to REALLY be in the RED.
Phase three: In need of some guidance, I start listening to other people too much (some friends, analysts, anyone with a firm opinion). Still, I trade too much...using my emotions more than I should. Still in the red.
Phase four: I am finally convinced in April 98 by an SI bear after
months of "technical" mumbo jumbo to get out of the market. He said
things like..."a number of breadth and volume measures are showing classic topping patterns..." I save my ass and then make money by
buying puts. The market turns in October and I lose all my profits and
then some. REALLY REALLY IN THE RED.
Phase five: I finally get smart and stop listening to the bears and get back in the market in December 98. Things are looking up. The bears made a lucky guess on the August correction, but all their little "technicals" failed them and they lost big time in the drive to 10,000. Still in the red, but I feel better because I have forgotten how much I had lost.
Phase six: I hear about CHS Electronics (HS). I like their story and their numbers. I buy. The stock goes down. I buy more. I ignore signals because I know I am right. Then I find out why the stock was so cheap. They had lied about their last 3 quarters. There is not much left in my brokerage account. Bears get excited about every 100 point downturn flapping over and over about their "technicals."
Phase seven: I decide to 1) close my brokerage account or 2) buy big,
quality names and forget about it...knowing that market timing is for
idiots and that charts can't predict a damn thing. I choose option 2. I diversify with 20 different positions in our retirement accounts and
what's left in the bloodied brokerage account. Biggest positions are
QCOM and FGI (a oil service company). Others include things like Costco, Home Depot, Intel, Microsoft, Cisco, Dell, Ascend, Uniphase, Disney and growth mutuals with some focused exposure with a few select funds in things like Latin America, Japan, etc. Buy big. Buy solid. Hold for 10 baggers. Limit cyclicals to 10% of portfolio in order to play some economic eruptions, yet not get burned if you're wrong. Value investments have been wrong for 5 years. Don't fight the market.
Phase eight: I am rewarded by buying and holding, forgetting about
timing, sleeping well, not running to the computer every hour, not
worrying about the "CRASH", etc., etc....and I don't worry about missing the run to 20,000.
Phase nine: Dream of CDMA.
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