* Handset sales * "...Qualcomm has shipped 35 million MSMs to date..."
"...Qualcomm has a very strong presence in the CDMA chipset market with approximately 90% market share of the MSM (Mobile station modem) market for CDMA handsets..."
"...We estimate the company's 1998 CDMA handset market share was 26%. In touring the handset facility, we noted nine handset production lines and 10 final assembly and test lines. The facility is running 24/7 and current capacity is 650,000 phones per month (this volume was achieved last month)..."
So, 36 million MSMs total have been shipped by all companies [since Nokia and Motorola have only recently started production]. I guess lead times from shipping to retail sale can't be much more than a month, so at the end of April, there should be 39 million cdmaOne subscribers world-wide.
Qualcomm has 25% [must be dropping as many licensees get moving] market share of handsets, so total production worldwide must be 2.6 million per month [ignoring Brazil production by Q!] since Q! has been running at a capacity 24 hour a day, 7 day a week.
There were 23,141,593 @000 1 Jan 1999 worldwide subscribers.
So at 1 April, there should be 7.8m + 23m = 31m handsets produced. By the end of April, we can add another 2.6m = 34m handsets produced, not all of which will have been sold.
So the numbers more or less agree. Production rates are increasing quickly.
By the end of the year, we will have 34m at 30 April + 2.6m per month x 7 = 18.2m + 34m = 52.2m subscribers, less a few in stock = the soothsayer's original prediction of 51,415,927 worldwide on-line cdmaOne subscribers.
Hoping the sums are correct,
Mqurice
[that should be a conservative number as growth is going crazy]
Graph of sales of handsets = for new readers, this is the graph the stock price has started following and will continue to do so until there are 4 billion cdmaOne, cdma2000, WWeb subscribers.
techstocks.com
Don't worry about the worry-warts who think parabolas are ugly. Anyway, parabolas are too slow for what we're looking at here. We need a cubic not a sluggish square function.
Prediction department [and previous post]:
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