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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: Yougang Xiao who wrote (53888)	4/2/1999 2:07:00 AM
From: Process Boy	Read Replies (2) of 1571563

Yougang - AMD vs. capacity AMD will have two fabs with competing technologies (Cu vs. Al) within a year. 30 will have an extremely immature technology (Cu) that I believe could take longer to ramp than is publicly projected. I could be wrong, but I'll believe it when I see it. Assuming they do OK with the Cu ramp; they will at some point have to convert 25. During conversion the capacity will be reduced. And at ~185mm2 die size for K7, they'll have to put out a LOT of good yielding wafers to generate 30%(?) unit volume for the whole CPU market. They could use at least one more fab. Two fabs for the market share they apparently are going for leaves ZERO margin for error in manufacturing execution. The 30% unit volume you cited, is that the U.S. retail market, or the whole CPU market? I'm not familiar with this particular projection. Could you refer me to where you got it? Was it part of an AMD conference call or something? Does this include servers as well? As I just postulated, AMD will have to execute flawlessly to achieve the numbers you are suggesting with just two fabs. Process Boy Process Boy

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