Earlie, here is a research update on Y2k imbedded chips --the percentage that will be non-compliant and require remediation, presumably replacement.
These systems and chips may create havoc, shuting down utilities, blocking somre communications hindering transportation, especially overseas.. What's your thoughts on the matter?
John
Embedded Systems & Y2K: The Numbers Begin to Emerge
Date:
04/01/99
Question:
We understand the incidence of embedded systems problems is much lower than was
originally anticipated. Do you have any statistics that bear this out?
Answer:
In May 1998 we had stated the following: "We expect that between 3 percent and 5
percent of all devices with embedded chip functionality may fail as a result of the Year
2000 (Y2K) problem [.7p]. Thus, addressing the embedded systems issue with respect to
the Y2K rollover is a daunting task, although the caveat here is that not all devices have a
date-related function. The Y2K project office cannot undertake the task of identifying and
testing every embedded device in use at the organization, rather a risk matrix detailing and
addressing critical areas is a more reasonable approach."
Subsequently, we have been following the embedded processor issue, and also have a
variety of statistics and data points as evidence. We have spoken with Litton Enterprise
Solutions (LES), which has conducted 14 major Y2K embedded systems projects. Its data
seems to corroborate our original thinking. LES finds that on average no more than 5
percent of all items inventoried require any action. For instance, a current project with a
nuclear power utility finds only 3 percent of items requiring remediation.
In fact, of the 40,000 unique items in LES' vendor database, 70 percent are date inert,
meaning that they have no date-related dependency. The key findings from LES'
engagements have been that the companies have not turned up items that would bring
the plant or the electric grid to a halt.
We also have published a series of IdeaBytes about a set of case study statistics from
projects conducted by TAVA Technologies, another embedded systems vendor. The
IdeaBytes in the series are:
IdeaByte, Year 2000: Embedded Systems Case Study Statistics -- Pharmaceutical Firm,
[543391-KI98], Kazim Isfahani
IdeaByte, Year 2000: Embedded Systems Case Study Statistics -- Petroleum Firm,
[543950-KI98], Kazim Isfahani
IdeaByte, Year 2000: Embedded Systems Case Study Statistics -- Beverage Firm,
[543819-KI98], Kazim Isfahani
IdeaByte, Year 2000: Embedded Systems Case Study Statistics -- Automotive Firm,
[543862-KI98], Kazim Isfahani
Recommendations
Year 2000 project managers analyzing the embedded systems piece of their projects
should anticipate that the actual occurrence of date-related embedded processors will be
in the low single digits.
While the issue of a systems crash due to a date-related embedded processor failure
remains, these figure are the beginnings of a trend toward a reduction in the overall risks
associated with the embedded systems issue.
Keep in mind that these statistics are particular the companies in question. The incidents
of date-related embedded systems at your organization may vary.
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