Alien Tech <<But with skum like Fat herb trashing the company every chance he gets in print and his media appreances like on CNBC.. Reminds me of the crap they put out on VVUS last year.>>
For those VVUSers who wish to evaluate Herb Greenburg's analysis of VVUS, here is his last VVUS comments published in thestreet.com (7/27/98 with VVUS@ 7 1/2).
BigKNY3
Trying to Put Potency Back into Vivus. (Fat Chance?)
By Herb Greenberg
Senior Columnist
7/27/98 7:44 AM ET
Mental impotence?: That's what it seems like when you see that the same two analysts who hyped Vivus (VVUS:Nasdaq), last year's hot stock, are continuing to pound the same, tired old table. Charles Olsziewski of PaineWebber and Wole Fayemi of Cruttenden Roth were both charbroiled by their earlier recommendations, yet they continue to reiterate buys -- even after Vivus, whose impotence treatment (plunging a small pellet into the urethra) was snuffed out by Viagra, posted a sharply lower loss than either expected.
And the diagnosis doesn't look promising. The company is running low on cash, and the latest prescription data show that new orders for its Muse have tumbled 80% since March, while refills are down 56%. The results showed up last quarter, when Vivus turned in a loss of 76 cents per share compared with the year-earlier gain of 28 cents.
What's there to like? Sales in Europe? Vivus' European sales produce little in the way of profits, and Viagra hasn't even been approved there, yet. The possibility of a takeover? What, of a single product with limited appeal? (Sure, but at what price?) The likelihood that the company can cut its costs enough? Fine, but what about that 90,000-square-foot facility it added to handle product demand? That it can execute well enough? So far, management has come up short on that end. A resurgence in demand thanks to the way Viagra has expanded the market? Possibly, but two more pills are slated to enter the market, and Muse costs nearly twice Viagra.
So, why does Olsziewski have a 12-month target of 20, and why do both analysts think the company can earn more than $1 per share next year? Neither could be reached, but you can't help but wonder whether by accident they swallowed some Muse.
Or maybe they just hope to get some investment banking biz out of the deal?
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