Cruiser/Bosco: Although I have been relatively silent on this board as of late, I know you both have followed my posts on the Yahoo NT thread. What I have said there still goes for here. In my opinion, we are still just teasing the topend of the range we have been in for 8 weeks($60, +/- 5%). Importantly, as Bosco noted, the volume at only 1MM shares for the day is very light. A convincing breakout(according to those who follow TA) requires heavier than average volume and multiple, consecutive days above the range. We might be on the cusp, but we haven't achieved any of those confirmation signals yet.
In addition, I believe anything that takes place now is subject to revision in three weeks after the actual qtrly results are announced(vs speculation re the results). As you both know(and so do many other old Bay shareholders), Bay tended to implode and significantly understate the downside of rev shortfalls in the backend of March(which was usually heavily weighted for the total qtr revs). Thus, Roth's warning to Lehman Bros on 3/7 that Bay was soft does not reflect the total risk to that Unit's revs given historical performance. Hopefully, there are offsetting opportunities on the upside from the better-performing Units of NT.
Finally, I did notice a warning from the head of the FTC about the SBC/Ameritech merger in the WSJ today, wherein he said he was concerned it might stifle local competition. He urged all parties to get together to allay those concerns.
Most of you know we well enough by now to know this post is not intended as a flame or doomsayer prediction. I am merely pointing out the current facts as we know them, the historical perspective(that I do not want to live through again!) and a reasonable set of observations on how the market behaves.
Next week's action, particularly the volume traded/day, will give us a better read on where the market is thinking the qtr's results will come in. If you disagree with the consensus, in either direction, you will have a trading opportunity in advance of the actual report the 3rd week of April.
Enjoy the holiday!
Paul |
