Kosovo Message Board - Msg: 8675328

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Pastimes : Kosovo

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To: Paul Merriwether who wrote (1175)	4/2/1999 3:04:00 PM
From: Trippi	Read Replies (6) of 17770

Oh man Paul you have really been drinking the koolaid -- THERE ARE NO ANGELS IN THE BALKANS -- not the Serbs, not the Croats, not the Muslims, not the Alabanians. Each has suffered atrocities at the hands of the other -- and each has committed atrocities. There is a reason Tito inscripted the SERBS into the Yugoslav military and kept the Croats and Muslims for more administrative work with in the Yugoslav system -- He considered the SERBS to be much better fighters. When the Soviet Union and Tito's Yugoslavia collasped -- it was Serbs that were sitting in the tanks -- and armed with weapons and munitions. There were very few (relatively) Croats or Muslims in the military when the collaspe occured. It was the Croats and Solvenia that announced that they were leaving the Yugoslav Federation -- the first huge mistake was made when Germany (Croats sided with Germany in WWII against the SERBS) became the first nation to recognise Croatia as an Independent State. Historically this is as huge a blunder as Germany being the first nation to recognise the West Bank and Gaza as a new Independent Arab state. Blunder number two -- was the US/UN led arms embargo on all groups in the region. The SERBS had the ARMS -- they were in the Military -- it was the Croats and Muslims that had no weapons to speak of -- the embargo effectively cemented this imbalance of military power -- two sides in the War would have few weapons -- the Serbs would have many. This policy led to an overwhelming superiorty on the part of the Serbs. If you remember correctly there were calls to remove the embargo -- but both the Bush and Clinton Adminstrations argued that lifting the embargo would prolong the war. Of course it would prolong the War -- the Croats and Muslims would actually be able to fight instead of being slaughtered. The Serbs did not create these policies -- they were waging a War -- and in War it matters little that the other side (for whatever reason) can't shoot back. Iraq today is a good recent example. Sherman burning Atlanta to the ground and anything else in his march to the sea is another historical reference. Had the historical imperatives been different -- had the Croats made up Tito's military machine and the Serbs been the administrators - Tudjman and the Croats would have had the weapons and our American notion of victim and aggressor would have been much different than it is today. No we have been working for Autonomy for Kosovo -- we don't give a damn about Kosovo from any strategic point of view -- we wanted to broker autonomy to avoid 1. An Independent Kosovo emerging as an Albanian state -- because this would only fuel the like ambitions of Albanians in Macedonia and those of the three parties to the Dayton accords in Bosnia -- the emergence of such a state could well mean lighting a fuse in Macedonia and another in Bosnia. 2. Autonomy for Kosovo would also stem the tide of refugees into Macedonia -- this is important as well because the more Albanian refugees that end up there only create a larger population imbalance and make more likely a similar move for an Albanian state carved out of Macedonia at a later date -- this would be a catastrophe as Greece and Turkey could both emerge as possible surrogate combantants in the ensuing war. Which gets us to today -- we are accomplishing exactly the opposite of what we set out to avoid. The refugees are streaming into the very places we did not want them -- destabilising the geopolitical situation in the true potential hot spots -- Macedonia being the worst. Autonomy in Kosovo is now dead -- there will be no one left to be autonomous -- and if there were how Kosovo Albanians could live under Serbian rule after this would be problematic without a long standing peace keeping force on the ground. So now we are either fighting with the KLA for an Independent Kosovo (wreaking havoc on agreements throughout the region and inviting more independence movements to emerge) or watching the flood continue to the very places we were worried about in the first place. This whole thing as been one blunder after another. And I maintain that it is not because one group is worse or more visicious than the other -- it is because from the beginning we failed to see how the history and competing cultures in the region caused inhabitants to veiw the conflict through a different lens than we did. The world failed to see how Germany (who killed 3 million Serbs in WWII) recognizing Croatia would be viewed by Serbs. The world failed to understand that an arms embargo would only lead to slaughter by the hands of the armed against the unarmed. The world would fail to understand that Kosovo is the holiest soil in all of Serbia. Fail to understand that in 1381 Prince Lazar led his forces to slaughter at the hands of the Turks after god told him that if he fled he would have a kingdom on earth -- but that if he fought and died he and the Serbs would have a kingdom in heaven. (sound familiar?). I carry no water for the SERBS but the fact is there are no angels in the region -- none. Our mission was to force an automous Kosovo on the SERBS at best -- and at worse to avoid the spillage of refugees to avoid destablization -- call any party you want all the names you want -- blame the whole mess on which ever party you need to blame -- the fact remains NATO has failed on this mission -- put the ground troops in now and we will only have compounded the mindless errors we have already made.

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