The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Message Board

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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club

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To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (4234)	4/2/1999 4:00:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) of 15132

MGJ: "It seems to me that for Bob to be on target for 1999 S and P earnings estimates he has to believe profits will rise somewhere in the area of 13% or he has to revise his profitability number down." I think you are right. In the most recent Marketimer, he has 1999 estimated S & P earnings at $51.50. Last weekend Brinker said 1998 earnings came in at $45.80. He projected 7% growth from there ($49) for 1999 and 8% for 2000 ($52.92) on the same program. So there is a disconnect there between the newsletter and the program. I suspect we may see a downward revision in an upcoming newsletter. With that said, we are now beginning to discount year 2000 earnings and are about 24 - 25x year 2000 earnings. Expensive? You bet and priced for perfection. BUT interest rates could come down in the face of a LOW INFLATION environment to give a slight multiple expansion. Brinker puts great emphasis on the no inflation scenario with global pricing, the internet and productivity increases acting as the three legs to the low inflation scenario.

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