Over on Hvide Marine's board, the Altman bankruptcy predictor was used to predict "near death" for HMAR. I responded that the quantitative model was neat but that I could tell the same by the SEC forms and some common sense. I'm no fan of models like these either.
But Bob's point about JRC is relevant I think. You have a stock of a company that is run in Draconian fashion, and the papers generally suck. How many of these papers really have a monopoly in their little town? From the Yahoo board, which is a pretty emotional place, one would think that these things are getting run into the ground. But not having been to these towns I don't know. And with the stock making steady new lows, it's worth it to let it go, see how far it falls.
On another note, I see that Anchor Gaming (SLOT) and IGT are falling in response to pending legislation and decreases in casino builds. I'm preparing to buy both. The logic behind their falls just doesn't hold. It seems to me that IGT, even if it were forced to sell machines, could just charge huge prices for them to reflected discounted future cash flows. They own over 70% of the market. SLOT just looks too good to be true, although I'd like more insider buying. I expect a pretty good bounce once the legislation is out of the way and done with, no matter how it goes. And it is already watered down.
Mike |
