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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: Lucretius who wrote (30027)4/2/1999 6:12:00 PM
From: Hank  Read Replies (2) of 86076
 
I just happened onto this thread and thought that I would add my two cents FWIW.

1) When the majority agrees that there is no problem- there is a problem.

2) All the rage these days is Kosovo. Remember when the headlines were about economic crisis in just about every other nation except the US? What happened to the rest of the world? Are they all better now? I don't think so. Will the US remain immune from their devastation? I don't think so.

3) Remember Long Term Capital Management? Bank of America? Remember why they lost big bucks? Can you say Derivatives? Do you know the extent of derivative investments by similar banks, hedge funds, and just about every other form of managed investment? Do you know what will happen if these investments go sour like they did for LTCM and BA? Can you say "Wipe Out"?

4) If the economy suffers a serious set back will the dollar continue to rise? No. Do alternative currencies like the Japanese Yen offer a more attractive value? Yes. Will an economic crisis in the US force the Yen higher? Yes.

5) If every fundamental indicator known to man says that the stock market is still grossly over valued, then is it? Yes. Will this continue forever? NO. Why do think even Warren Buffet refuses to invest more in the stock market and is sitting on 15 billion in cash? He's no fool. He's buying select commodities like silver (and I'm sure a few others).

The question is not if the market will get hammered but when. April? Maybe. My guess is it will happen latter in the year. Either way I believe it will happen. When it does, it will make last October's crash look like a tiny blip. All my opinion, of course.

Hank
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