Hi Sunny,
I am very enthusiastic as indicated by fact that it represents my largest position (twice as large as next biggest position), ahead of MSFT, INTC, AOL, CSCO, CMCSK, ATI, MTC, AMGN, MER, SNE (Sony), MBK (Tokyo Mitsubishi Bank), SAT (Asia Sat), RTRSY (Reuters), ERICY (Ericsson), T, XON, SAP, Bangkok Bank, Thai Farmers Bank, Hong Kong Shanghai Bank, Asia Pulp & Paper, and a hedge position in NEM (Newmont Mining). As you can see, I am very enthusiastic on internet, biotech (for food and drug) and Japan (exporters and domestic).
Specifically on Japan, I believe the financial market is at a bottom and in many ways represent better value than the majority of US shares, but there is no particular hurry in piling in. I buy 9984 on the Tokyo market as the bid/ask spread is not large, but I buy SNE and MBK on US market because of the availability of options to lower average purchasing cost. MBK is the Citibank recovery play for Year 2000. SNE is an innovative global company with content, and a potential commanding position on the home network via their Play Station II 128 bit PC and their other appliances. For an alternative view on Japan, checkout www.pei-intl.com.
However, I believe that the Yen will further weaken to 140-160 to the US$, which is good for the SNE (immediately) and MBK (in the medium term) as the information is digested by the equity market. But for 9984 with its underlying US portfolio companies, I am thinking that the Yen share price may not immediately reflect the currency gain on the value of its US portfolio companies, and thus for US$ based investor (of which I am one), we will see a temporary down for our 9984 shares. If so, the risk I had in mind is that some of us may make a mistake and sell 9984, thinking that the company is somehow intrinsically less valuable ¨C that would be a mistake. If the Yen weakens, and 9984 US$ price with it, we get another chance at accumulation. I think these thoughts as I do trade 25% of my 9984 holdings actively.
So, my RAW OPINION on 9984 is hold what I have, sell my 25%, aggressively accumulate on any weakness if such weakness is caused by (1) USA internet share correction or (2) Yen devaluation.
On my wise crack about the 400k investment made by 9984 with MSFT, I am simply happy that my 9984 investment has two big hands helping it along ¡ (1) the intrinsic value of 9984 and, better still, (2) the powerful speculative frenzy that will no doubt propel the share upward in a crescendo of buy orders. I believe in the force of the market to give my the 100 bagger, and the power of management to give me the 10 bagger.
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