Pruguy-
I think YHOO may surpass AOL's market cap someday primarily because I see their open, purely html-based network as inherently and naturally stronger than what AOL currently offers. I have yet to hear that AOL is moving to transition from proprietary content to html-based content. If they do not, their growth in users may not match that of Yahoo's. I also wonder if yahoo isn't much stronger internationally. They were unveiling web sites such as www.yahoo.fr pretty early on, and have worked to strengthen those sites to register many users outside the US. It should be interesting to see how user numbers both US and external grow over the coming year(s).
I think the value of free, good quality content which Yahoo offers will continue to draw businesses and individuals alike. Eventually, unless AOL can become an open community/network, Yahoo's user base will dwarf that of AOL. I admittedly do not know as much about AOL, but I rarely encounter content stored there or find myself using their services. My primary use of Yahoo is quote.yahoo.com; that site is excellent, and I use it almost daily. My impression is that there are many people who essentially loyally use one or another aspect of Yahoo, and that collectively that creates a sticky user base. Very valuable for advertising, as is AOL's user base.
AOL's primary strength appears to be in the number of paying subscribers (excellent), but I wonder if they can continue to grow as fast as Yahoo in the face of (potentially) easier access via other means (e.g., @Home/Excite, or other non-AOL ISP's). I think being non-standard .html could hurt AOL.
What do you think?
Randy |
