OT--------------------------------------------------------------------Story telling on various issue raised in public and private on how AG thinks? Why do I attack relentlessly the bears although personally I like them! Integrity honesty and why I like to be long in ASEA. The logic of Idea's.
I am selective buyer of South Korea and Thailand. I am also recommending long JPN, however I will cut my positions if 15200 are taken out on two consecutive bases.
On US employment numbers, I think it is a strong number and as I have always highlighted strong economy with a non-inflationary bias is a great economy for corporate profits, what impresses me the most is nearly forgotten four economic releases.
March Consumer Confidence - Consumer Confidence Rose Slightly in March,
Marking The Fifth Consecutive Gain (March 30,1999)
New Home Sales (February) - What Goes Up, Must Come Down. A Precursor For
The spring? (March 29,1999)
Durable Goods Orders (February) - Larger Than Expected Decline Calls
Manufacturing Rebound Into Question.
January International Trade Report - The Trade Deficit Surged To A Record $17
Billion In January... (March 18,1999)
The net effect of above reports is that consumer confidence is rising however we are seeing a slight drop in new home sales and also a drop in durable good orders putting the whole manufacturing rebound question in doubt, the higher trade deficits also is a negative for a continued $ strength but this has been neutralized by 'flight to quality' as $ has appreciated with crisis in Kosovo. In my opinion a lower unemployment.
Higher consumer confidence declining house sales and weakening durable god orders is a good mix of signals, for Alan Greenspan to raise rates he would like to look at the bonds market to adjust for this lower unemployment, the market is the best medium to rely on the trend of interest rates, absolutely no doubt that at certain point in time if we see threat of 'asset inflation' getting out of hand, we might see AG throwing a spanner in the works, I think AG will be closely monitoring DOW and other indices, he knows it well that speculative bubble in some of the sectors i.e. the internets, does not poses a huge threat to market capitalization, as a percentage of total market cap DOT or IIX still is a small percentage, when we see that this market has progressed to these levels without participation of BKX, DDX OSX RUT and many a other laggards , he can make easy deduction that asset inflation economists are talking about do exist in some sector but it is not threatening the entire edifice.
I think at any given time a fall of 'internets' from grace can be easily discounted by the market, I see lot of inherent strength within the market to write off internets (if needed) without a major problem, we have seen hype in bio-technologies and many other sectors in the past and redistribution i.e. their dismissal from pedestal of darling hood to villain has not really changed the basic up move initiated from DOW 4000. I think we need to watch these highly hot sectors performances in the past that provides us enough evidence that we can once again might achieve this cooling of hype without breaking the upwards trending market.
It is clearly evident, it will not threaten a mass exodus of investors, and overvaluation in specific sectors can easily burst and bring valuations and P/E's to quite a reasonable level. I do expect AG to in near future to talk about a new form of coded 'irrational exuberance' if not him I would be surprised to see market overreaction to any perceived strategic miscalculations in 'Balkans'. Any of these actions can rattle the markets a bit, (considering my past record and my ability to read his mind I would think he would certainly do that soon after the next round of earning season or my perception that market would overreact on strategic implications of instability in central Europe may happen).
If the earnings or perception of doom, any of the one take the toll on the market, he will keep mum, why to interfere with forces of markets if market are self correcting excesses, if not and market sees great earning numbers which I think would be the case he would certainly like that 'asset inflation' may be stalled, atleast for another two or three quarters of earning. DOW at 10,000 would definitely require higher S&P earnings. Present earnings of 43$ will not be good to sustain SPM at 1330, I would rather thing SPM 1330 is sustainable with 49$ earnings. We need a strong economy to have these kind of earnings but it would take two or three quarters to reach to this goal, so strong numbers may result in a rally to my 1470 level and than a big sell off to 990 level and than a move back to 1330 as the year end approaches.
I term this move not as a bear market move like 992 to 845 move was the one we saw last year, these are moves where weak holders are shown the door and firm hands take over, this is an integral part of a trending market, all markets need to remove the hype and consolidate at the lower levels, anticipation and hype are also important for the market, market will tend to run ahead of itself then it comes back to visit lows which turn the valuations to ridiculous levels like 1320 on composite on Oct 8th, where we saw it a classic buy and others saw it a sell including the Wall street top gurus, it is my overall strategy which saves me from disasters like 8th Oct 98, or 28th Oct 97. I think I need to keep the direction of my thread clearly defined, I am not here to become darling of people who betray many an innocent investor's, my threads is consciously designed to evaluate, educate and translate my strategies into market short term and long term directional trades. Each and every post I have here is something I will trade on and have traded on, I like to post straight and honest and have earned my reputation from a distance of 6000 mile from a third world country which unfortunately has a poor reputation.
I stick my neck out every day with great pride without a moment's hesitation, I am not one of those who will look at Globex to define their moves mine will be opposite to globex, like I did on Thursday, from morning I highlighted that stronger opening is a trap. I do follow these fly by night forecasters closely through my readers help, for me cutting their doomsday or end of the world predictions are as important as cutting out pumping and dumping. Opportunity lost on a great turn around is a great loss for someone willing to invest, those who are responsible to let investors stand on the side- lines are as much a culprits as some people who like to pump and dump. Niceties on personal level is one thing but as a public property I am naturally inclined to take the whole bunch on, and also ready to face the thrash when it comes out f their thrash bins.
A US resident investor one needs to realize that if he leaves an up-trending market on suggestions of some voodoo bears, it will fiscally not viable to get back in after a 20% correction, I rather would sit out the 30% correction and add at the lows to make the exercise of investing a real fun. Day in day out is basically an art to make money around your core, protect your core as correction come in by buying puts as market breaks supports and getting out of them as market takes out resistance's, trying to make money when markets are up or down. This is the art of day trading, the moment you enter ‘emotions and sentiments' like ‘I feel like shorting' you bastardize the pristine environment of the markets with your convoluted logic. Keeping emotions out and sensationalism out is the first need of the market and as a market academic I do take this as an offence. As far as one keep's his emotions to oneself that is good enough but if you shoot your ‘ astronomy and voodoo charts' that I know are based on fiction and figment of mind and you know it how much pain they have given you, I will pounce to say shut up on public form and that's only my own thread where I am the host and I post to my self some thoughts which are important to be known by new entrants of the market, without naming anyone without taking their post and attacking them, I do use this thread to make them more rational, once they get it on the chin, they think of me when writing on ‘voodism' someone out their is watching them.. The chin that gets it knows it well what I mean.
I take pride in my work and in the fact that I am here not as result of mercy from my foes. I am here due to my hard work, 90% of my mail is addressed to my own-self and I have kept this thread alive irrespective of its popularity, post or no post Ike was around. Their were times that no one posted for a weeks after a severe fight with ‘dens of bear's but I kept going, it was never like other threads to need some crutches of help. Resignations, deceits, stabbing my back on charges which were resulting from personal jealousies, never broke my enthusiasm to read and reflect what I think is good for markets Many a ‘great self styled posters' quit but they still love to read me, they prosper and I do too, but for me it is the winning trade and prosperity of my readers which make me feel good, on a day when market is down to 1320 I still hold hands of hundreds and stop them to shoot in their foot, only to share with them that sigh of relief and thank you Ike note when composite is at 2500, that forms the core of my life on Idea.
I don't read these self styled charlatanist icons, I accept that sensationalism attracts a lot more attention, but it boomerangs too, look at end of INTC forecast that took Kurlack to grave of anonymity, bears like Acompora turned to bulls with little bit exaggerated timing of calls, they could fool CNN or \CNBC but exposing his timing here that he was short until 20th Oct 98 was something I cherish, a small writer on a forgotten corner of SI has an impact that matters to me. Sensationalism and end of world like end of EMC and INTC or TXN remained always in ascendancy but constructive thinking and positive note will ultimately win, I see most of these stocks in triple figures and think that what a nice thing to catch NDX by balls, Cisco's and SUNW all components of NDX were highlighted like LU and C or MER and all at lows.
Reading the right stuff like First Union, Economist, BW, Barrons, WSJ FT, Alert, I extract my knowledge from virtuous and not from half cooked unscientific knowledge which is a recipe of disaster and I oppose it openly. Quits or no quits the thread lived beyond anyone's wildest imagination, I am rather in for long haul, figures as to how popular or unpopular this thread is not an issue, will never be one, recently when some bears descended on this thread with a single day correction, they first misread my short call as a long call, when I showed them what I have been suggesting they opened up skeletons of the past without realizing that all these skeletons were a result of people challenging my integrity and my focus.
I keep building these different strategies in my mind, I do it for the sake of clarity and to guide my thread towards rational approach, however all this is than finally converted into daily strategy, this is the bottom line, lot of free thinking goes in my mind, I am original and I try to have my own independent thinking after going through relentless reading, I am a learner but I would like to make a mark as a free thinker on market direction, correlation-ships of global indexes with macro-economic releases and testing of deductions obtained from my research with political ramifications of certain global hot-points are translated to support and resistance points. It is all a very good exercise and I owe it to my thread to make it the most outstanding and a compulsory read even to my fiercest critics. For me market forecasting is a public trust, if I don't know about a stock I openly say this is out of my universe, however I take exceptions when I see non-sense and voodoo technique being openly applied to keep innocent investors out of the market or to let them buy puts, one guru had in last one year issued 74 calls of buying puts and in 365 days no one has ever dared to ask why? We are at SPM 1300 and 2500 on composite, he was buying puts at 1320 on composite, no one and the greater union of bears never dare to ask what happened to the puts of 1320 when premiums of puts were sky high.
Even my friend Russell appears once in a while to brag about his long puts, he remains an enigma to me, he asks me on a typical down day about how I am feeling when I exited with huge profits and entered again at the support. At any given time I am more protected on the down side than any bear can imagine but I make all this free of charge I ride on them. Permanence in views is against basic market fundamentals, I think until these ‘ iced frozen minds' are jolted the mockery of bears shall continue. When I show them the mirror, it gives them acidity but I am not going to let them go scott free. All this makes me a very unpopular personality with bears, but that's the way I like it, I would rather be unpopular with bunch of fools who have been self inflicting wound's, self- flagellation is now an virtue of the bears. More than that stopping others to buy NOK.A at 45$ or EMC at 25$, this I take exception at, INTC at 57$ was being presented as a stock about to be 45, today at 120$ it is a shame that many did not get into it. Through my little ineffective thread I tell them often you have made a terrible mistake, believe in US and its great companies.
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