This is response to both of John Force's posts :# 7522 on Thread Morons and #2478 on SFE Thread
Sorry if this will appear 2 times.I am trying to post it and somehow it does't show up jet.
Message 8607546
Well.there are bears,there are bulls and there are investors using sophisticated and somehow proprietary indicators.
It seems,yours is flashing read message:
"move out whenever the stock attracts unusually high amount of attention,too much noise for your level of comfort"
Preety contrarian,very safe strategy and well ,level of comfort of each of us is the unbrokable bottom line.
Beside the "noise problem" of yours your move is very ,very prudent.By the text book : sell 50% of holdings when you double your money.Probably most of us did or are doing now the same .That's why the stock went down from $74 and leveled into range.
I, on the other hand prefer as much and as loud noise as possible.It is I guess my proprietary indicator.
"Noise" is also the goal and the end result of every single analitic ,every single brockerage, investment bank and financial newspaper.Quite a few million people making "noise"here.The latest example is an analitic rising the price target on AOL to $215.He must be on drugs according to you.Maybe you can pick on them next to preserve the old good days when quiet phone calls between broker and overpaying customer were his major source of information.
It is the noise which attracted my attention to this stock,and it is the noise which contributed in most part to the 100% rise in price in 2 weeks
It is the noise which made me 100% in 2 weeks and it is quiet phone call from your brocker which made you ...........% in ..............months/years.
Fill in blanks your return from the date you bougt it till March 4/99,compare your return from march 4-18/99.Annualise both and compare again to see the difference the noise made in your well beeing.
To handsomly benefit from this noise and then turn around and to call for subduing those noisy nuts is pretty deceitfull.
It is biting the hand which feeds you.Don't you think.?(although one can imagine that there are those who like the food but hate the hands feeding them)
Or maybe you have just applied the next textbook rule :"short the stock after 100% run" and went on the mission to subdue those who see this stock rising more? Nothing wrong with shorting because of A,B,C (give me as good reasons as I gave you -not your fishy fillings -and I am ready to convert)) but calling people "idiots" because they thing differently (and probably better) than you even if they are daydreamers and out of touch is a little too much. and can backfire (see my own experience below)
70-80% of investing public does not do enough of their due diligence simply because of lack of time,therefore can qualify as bunch of idiots according to your criterions.My best returns (over 1500% annualized) were done without DD.My worst mistake (over 1300% / 3 monts) was because of DD. I bought EBAY on second or third day after IPO for $ 31-something first and then startet my DD.The result was a shock what I bought and first thing in the morning the next day I sold it for $ 2 loss.When I came across posts or some newsletters some time later reasoning that EBAY is cheap at $100-something and it will go way up I was laughing."What idiots "-I said to myself - I DID NOT POST THAT PUBLICTLY.
"They obviously don't know the company as good as I do!"
Well,it turned out I was the idiot here.EBAY at the pick was over $ 400 counting 3:1 split (if they split 2:1 then less -I don't care to check)
I still belive EBAY looking at fundamentals is not worth $30. And that was my big mistake-looking just at fundamentals.Not the quality of company but the outside forces were and still are the major factor driving this stock up.That is the hype ,the noise I dismissed so readily and paid for it dearly. And of course not BB-threads or individual "Internuts" made the major niose here.They were just FIRST to do it.
Brockerage houses and the media did.
Of course this is not to say that DD on the company is a must .Always!.But taking a look at a broarder picture and keeping in mind a picture of a forest and the tree AT THE SAME TIME is much better approach
I think SFE is just on the begining of the process of switching the major forces behind its stock from PAST GOOD fundamentals to FUTURE BETTER potential and growth with all the hype and noise attached .It is 100% covered in fundamentals up to around $ 60.(see iionline article) and of course constantly changing.The rest is hype and discounting mechanism of the market looking into future.But as my article and tens of other examples show THE NOISE AND HYPE HAS A TENDENCY TO GO LONG, LONG WAY AND IS GENERATED MOSTLY BY THE STREET,not by the Internuts.. They are just trying to be little ahead of The Street
Note that not only the "idiots" but the company ITSELF compared itself to other VC cos. (like CMGI) ,identified elements of their growth and success and is simply following .And the company itself is doing everything to be $450 stock as soon as posible.Including the noise.
I guess you don't like the company now either.Well,it is your holly right.Free country.But to convince others not to like it you have to give them some valid reasons.Not just your feelings and emotions.Do your homework.I'll be hapy to listen to any logical and EXPLICITE reasoning.
THE "IDIOTS" ARE JUST NOTICING THE FACTS,POSTING THEM FOR EVERYONE'S CONSIDERATION AND JUDGMENT AND HELPING TO SHOVEL 100% GAINS SO FAR INTO YOUR POCKETS.
And you think that is exactly the reason to hate them.Twisted in deed.
The stock as I said in the article can and will go lower if the bear will strike .So will every other stock.It can even go lower short time on its own due to long time to ICG ipo and not enough positive noise in the meantime.Strategy to sell at$69 and buy back at $66 is as good as any other.
I was tempted too to wait for a lower price to enter.I watched it for few days,saw a period of profit taking fading away but this sucker did not went down enough .Despite DOW ending 200 pts.from its high.!"Why,"I asked,and started digging.I found the answer in those "10 reasons....."and decided that risk of missing possible 400% run(even risk of missing 15%) is not worth playing the target shooting game for few bucks.
So the day you reduced your position I dubbled mine for $67 and I can sleep comfortably now.
Have a nice sleep
Wellab
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