Justa and all re small caps: Liquidity Trim Tabs as excerpted in Barrons. If someone who follows liquidity is making a case for small caps you might want to take notice
Liquidity Trim Tabs
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MARCH 29 ~ The overall economy continues to grow rapidly. Corporate investors are very bullish. Yet 60% of all stocks are down in price this year. What do corporate investors know that the Wall Street professionals do not?
Bears say that a market where the top 50 big-cap U.S. stocks are extremely overvalued and all the rest are in a decline is inherently unstable. Therefore, the top 50 have to crash as they did in 1973.
However, given that Corporate America today is heavily buying shares in the great unwanted small-cap wasteland, maybe the reverse will happen and the small-caps will soar to join the big-caps.
One bearish type said that since we are at the late stages of this bull market, leadership will not broaden out. Forgive my cynicism, but at the late stages of a bull market there is huge distribution from the smart sellers to the dumb buyers. Right now we have the smart buyers adding to their holdings. This is not the late stage; rather, it appears more to be the early stage of a bull market in small-caps.
Liquidity is the key to any and all markets, whether stocks, real estate or starlets. The 1973 market crash was more the result of liquidity leaving the stock market as a byproduct of the ''Energy Crisis'' than problems due to a two-tier market. Today, the small-cap float is shrinking and cash in the hands of stock-market players is growing. Yes, index funds, etc., rig the market if favor of the big-caps. However, don't bet against liquidity.
-CHARLES BIDERMAN |
