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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 683.31

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To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (9715)	4/3/1999 5:42:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (3) of 99985

The big cap stocks won't get dumped till the end of the bear run. The OTC Prime (^OTX) didn't get trashed until the last 2 weeks of August after the Russian market collapse and the hedge funds having to liquidate stocks. Interest stat for last week: **CUMULATIVE 1ST QTR U.S. EARNINGS SURPRISES AS OF MARCH 29 POS/ % NEG/% ON TGT/% S&P 500 28 17/61% 5/18% 6/21% I/B/E/S Universe 115 60/52% 33/29% 22/19% $500 mln or less 58 26/45% 23/40% 9/16% $500 mln - $1 bln 14 9/64% 4/29% 1/07% $1 bln or more 43 25/58% 6/14% 12/28% Less than half the small cap stocks that reported last week had positive earnings surprises. The largest caps had the fewest negative earnings surprises.

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