LGND - further research
Through researching LGND, I stumbled on Supergen (SUPG). SUPG has filed to extend NIPENT,the drug for the extremely rare hairy cell leukemia to CTCL, which makes it a drug competing with Ontak and Panretin.
SUPG send me upon a request a nice information package,including a brokerage report from Everen Securities. The SUPG drug NIPENT seems to have achieved better results (response rate) then ONTAK, yet the market forecast for NIPENT's CTCL indication was below 10M$!
I am somewhat surprised, but this makes me think twice about ONTAK's market potential, especially when I consider the adverse side effects of ONTAK. I do not believe, the numbers if a market potential for Ontak of 20-40M$, which I believe have been estimated here on this board. The article in the investors package also states, that other treatments for the less progressed state of the disease exist, and these achieve good response rate.
My personal take is, that LGND has thrown the 40M$ for the Seragen acquisition out of the window. First,they have there own drug Panretin in the same market anyway; second SUPG will most likely have a competitive (and better) drug in 1999. Looks like a very crowded market for quite a small indications. Anyone still believe, that LGND makes money this year? I do not think, that the Panretin/Ontak duo will ever be able to make LGND profitable. We are probably talking about 5 M$ only per quarter in peak sales (not profits) and this is not enough to make LGND profitable.
By the way,I consider SUPG's RFS2000 to be a possible blockbuster and the stock a far better investment then LGND. It seems to me that they manage their assets well and are able to bring their lead drugs to market for far less money than the average biotech. |
