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Pastimes : Let's Talk About Our Feelings!!!
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To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (33623)4/3/1999 9:30:00 PM
From: nihil  Read Replies (1) of 108807
 
'Fraid you have to hang with your original curtain. Before you chose the probability of your choice eventually being RR was .3333... After the lifting of the third curtain, the probability of your choice being right is .50. And the probability of switching to the remaining unpicked choice appears to be .5. Except -- if Monte was fair and rational (watch the name!)-- the probability of his lifting the RR curtain was 0.00. His disclosure had a probability of one after you have picked your original curtain. Of course rational greedy Monte doesn't want to give away RR's. The rotten guy would only ask you to switch if you had picked the RR. Your a priori prob of picking the RR and not having a curtain lifted was zero. The a priori probability of picking RR and having a curtain lifted was 1. Before I turned down the remaining curtain I would ask Monte if he was a follower of Ayn Rand (like Alan Greenspan)? If he said yes (he'd have to tell the truth), I'd stick with the original curtain. If he said no, I'd stick anyway, but fear the possibility that he was a decent man who would not lead me astray. If I was a beautiful woman, I'd make clear to him that I was his before the show. If I were a beautiful man, and thought that he was gay .... Anyway, you get my point. It's very rare that the probability model dictates the answer to a 3D problem.
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