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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear?
XOMA 26.65-1.0%Jan 23 3:59 PM EST
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To: Cacaito who wrote (9517)4/4/1999 12:51:00 AM
From: Slugger  Read Replies (2) of 17367
 
Cacaito,

Thanks for the number crunching, but something still doesn't make sense here. Original estimates by XOMA stated that they thought the trial would be completed after an enrollment of 130 patients (it was later revised to 200 and now stands at 380). In addition, XOMA has been telling us that the trial will be completed after a set level of mortality has been reached, not a set level of enrollment.

Are the numbers saying that XOMA's original target was possibly as high as 57 deaths and that they expected that to be accomplished after only 130 patients? That would mean XOMA expected almost 2/3 of the placebo group to die! Awfully high, even for Meningo unless you are looking at the most severe cases.

Could you plug in numbers for 130 patients and see what other mortality numbers might work?
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