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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (1452)	4/4/1999 5:05:00 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) of 3536

Henry and Thread, Lawrence Lindsey up to his old tricks Calling for the DJIA to drop 2-3000 points...poor earnings. Message 8695964 . There is no doubt the broad market has been weak since December '98.... The recent push to new highs is index driven and the result of only a few stocks moving higher....I think it's under 20% of all stocks? I make the suggestion that interest rates will fall modestly towards 5% and the broader market stocks will have an opportunity to regain some of their recent losses....So the market breadth will strengthen and the markets are about to see a new accelerated surge upwards. Henry, In 1stQ '97 rates = 7% by 1stQ '98 = 6%.... In the 3rdQ rates bounced off 5% and have moved up towards 6% into '99.... I've interpreted this move as a "natural balance" created by the interchange of European and Japanese central Banks selling US Bonds to facilitate their own needs. Also 5% was a natural area for profit taking. At this point I expect this process about to be accomplished and US interest rates to start looking at 5% again. Does this strike you as unreasonable? Chip

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