Fred,
Most people were unaware of the CYRX chip. And in any case, most of those who did know about it, expected the announcement late in the first, or in the second quarter (like me).
>Why do you think CYRIX has been rising sharply for months from low teens to the mid twenties before this announcement.>
>AMD will also be announcing a new chip soon. That too is why their stock has more than doubled over the last several months. >
Are you kidding? Both AMD and CYRX have been moving up in the last several months, because virtually EVERY SEMICONDCTOR COMPANY HAS BEEN MOVING UP IN THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS. Most of which, have doubled or tripled in that time frame.
For CYRX and AMD: After a great deal of long delays, both of them are finally ramping up production of their Pentium or Pentium Pro-class chips. With all of the rest of the semis moving much higher, and with AMD/CYRX finally starting to sample/ship their competitive chips, THAT is why they have moved higher. The low-cost chips haven't been much of a factor.
>My guess is no Rockwell based 56k modems on the shelves for at leat 3-4 months.>
That wouldn't surprise me one bit. 3-4 months are about what I'm expecting for the competition to release 56k modems.
>but USRX began its slide BEFORE the COMS disaster and general network drop.>
Fred, look back at some charts---all of the networkers began sliding in mid-January, when CSCC got crushed--well before the COMS disaster (and COMS was going down since December). And for USRX, it was sliding from before, because Wall Street was fearful of their earnings report, and their ability to maintain growth in the future (because of competition/commoditization fears). There may have also been rumors that x2 wouldn't ship in January, as originally planned.
Anyway, I firmly belive in what I've said so far, and so do you. We'll have to just wait until the x2 announcement too see what happens, in order to resolve this debate. IMO, USRX will get a short-lived pop on the news. And then it's overall direction will be dictated by the market, and how ROK eventually responds.
We'll see.
Sal Habash |
