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Non-Tech : Iomega Thread without Iomega

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To: rll who wrote (8763)	4/4/1999 9:53:00 PM
From: Ken Pomaranski	Read Replies (3) of 10072

Drumroll please... Iomega earnings predictions: Q1 99 Q2 99 Q3 99 Q4 99 Q1 00 Q2 00 Q3 00 Q4 00 ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- REVS 367m 388m 392m 552m 431m 507m 560m 702m EPS (.02) (.01) (.01) +.09 +.01 +.03 +.04 +.15 GM% 23% 24% 24% 31% 26% 26% 27% 33% SG&A% 20% 20% 20% 16% 19% 17% 17% 14% NOTES: Model is close to 'best case'. I assume CLIK! contributes about 130 in revenues in 1999, and about 600m in 2000. Model shows that Iomega is in deep trouble if CLIK! fails. JAZ revenues drop about 20% Y/Y starting in Q3 1999 due to competition and lower ASPs kicking in. Due to 'treadmill effect', model shows ZIP revs increasing only about 10% Y/Y. HOWEVER, this is much better than the past year, which showed decreases. This is because the ASPs should level off. Note big jump in Q4 1999. This is Clik! realy kicking in. (500,000 units in that quarter). That would be quite a feat! I don't think Iomega will beat these estimates, but they could easily fall short. ASSUMPTIONS ----------- 1. CLIK! gets to 2m units by Q4 2000, or 10%!! of the digital cam market. This is generous! 2. ZIP selling 5m units / quarter by Q4 2000. 3. Revenues are substationally generated from JAZ, CLIK!, and ZIP products. Any 'new' product is not far enough in the design cycle to have impact on 1999/2000 revenues / earnings. 4. Clik is gone by Q3 1999. (adds revs, but drags GM) 5. No large marketing campaign. Or, it is a closed loop system. (This has been proven in the past). I'll email my model to those interested. Please send me a private message. I may not be able to process all requests... I'll discuss it more later. I'm busy tonight. kp

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