...US miscalculated that he will back off after a few bombs, he did not...instead he got the opportunity to drive out all these people who now are suffering at the border....
Yes, the US and NATO miscalculated and yes - tactically - Milosevic has gained tremendously, in that his objective, the drastic reduction if not elimination of the ethic majority is almost at hand.
However, his tactics have increased his risk. IMO, a sure winning strategy would have been to sit on his hands, play "boy scout" with the Kosovars and be a Tomahawk "catcher." American and European public opinion would have quickly turned negative, and hence the continued application of military force, or its future use, would have been lost as an option to NATO.
Yet, Milosevic's tactics have shown that the reality is close to - if not wholly in line - with the propaganda. The scenes of the refugees are revolting, swaying public opinion in the United States, and from what I can read, in Europe as well. Those scenes, in the United States, Europe and worldwide are transforming this action into a strategic confrontation for NATO and the US. With growing public support, there is no way to gauge, how the US and NATO will react. That will largely depend on their leadership.
Directly challenging a great power(s) is a perilous course. |
