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Technology Stocks : Advanced Fibre (AFCI) ** IPO
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To: E_K_S who wrote (2057)4/5/1999 1:13:00 AM
From: SteveG  Read Replies (2) of 3299
 
NBMO from last week: UPDATE ON AFCI; MAINTAIN BUY
We received an update from AFCI management on the quarter and outlook yesterday. Highlights include:

- AFCI remains comfortable with the range of analysts' estimates for 1Q99: sales of $60M to $67M and EPS of $0.03 to $0.04. We are modeling $0.03 on $65M.

- Evaluation of the UMC-1000 continues at the company's target RBOC (SBC), and AFCI believes a qualification announcement by mid-April remains reasonable. Lab trials have been completed, and 25 systems are now in first-office applications - the final stage of field trials before product acceptance is completed. Qualification at this account would give the UMC-1000 a credibility boost and probably contribute more to a higher valuation for AFCI than any other anticipated event.

- Considerable progress has been made on the search for a new CEO, and we understand an introduction could be made by the time AFCI announces March results. The appointment of a new and permanent CEO would help lend the company a sense of improved stability; a consideration that would be well received by both customers and investors.

- We continue to recommend AFCI to investors with a long-term focus. The company offers strong product technology and is an attractive acquisition candidate, particularly at its current depressed valuation (20x forward 12-month EPS). We continue to caution, however, that visibility into near-term results is limited. We rate this stock BUY, with a $17 year-end price target.

Anyone wanting NBMO's 3 year model, email me.

And fwiw, ML went restriced on AFCI recently.
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