Razorback:
I believe that the points that you raise are quite valid. In addition, as Foxy has pointed out previously, this is just one of many similar power projects in which Enron is involved. It is not key to their survival nor is it probably of major impact on their bottom line.
I must again indicate that I do not have the benefit of Enron's view on the project or its status, and am making my prior and following comments based upon information principally received from non-Enron sources.
If, as we are told, the governments involved are very anxious to get this project underway, and if, as we are told, the existing and developable gas resources of Abacan are the closest and most ready to deliver, and if, as we are told, Enron would like to use this project as a means to establish itself in a long term, high visibility participation in the energy infra-structure in West Africa, it would seem that purposely delaying and potentially alienating three governments, while just hoping to cash in on a fire sale price on the Abacan gas, would be counterproductive.
If, however, they do not believe that they are under time pressure, and they have a more devious goal in mind, and they see themselves as a possible Block 4 competitor, keeping Abacan as off-balance as possible might be to their advantage.
I certainly am not in possession of information, nor am I experienced enough with Enron's international business practices, to be able to speculate on their motivation and goals. My only personal experience with Enron is in their domestic power and co-gen operations in which they have a reputation as, and have demonstrated a capability for being, a competent, high quality, fast moving and efficient operator. But this is a whole different ballgame and involves a different part of their company.
Again if we are correctly informed by our limited and knowingly one-sided sources, it is said that the other potential gas/pipeline/generation projects that have gotten a lot of publicity are a great distance away (both physically and in developmental/political stage) and that this project is the one that could be implemented and brought into production most quickly. As you have indicated, such does give added leverage to Enron and may provide some limited time in which any initial damage or disadvantage to Enron of being the cause of delay, might ultimately be negated or recoverable.
As usual, Abacan is in a situation which requires things out of its control to "go right" in order to survive.
Just my opinion.
Steve |
