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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Lars who wrote (4275)4/5/1999 10:19:00 AM
From: MrGreenJeans  Read Replies (3) of 15132
 
Valuations and New Earnings Projections

Bob seems to think 1999 earnings will come in at $49 this year, based on the show this past weekend, and with the S and P 500 currently at 1309.5 intra-day that gives one a pe ratio of about 26.7.

Bob did state with valuations this high rates would need to decline for substantial upside movement in equity prices.

What are the chances rates will decline significantly? One can make the case the rates may be stable for a while or are likely to move down with the same probability of moving up.

Anyone here selling into strength today? Anyone think multiples pe multiples will go higher??

As for me with pe ratios this high I am moving more money to the sidelines and waiting for a pullback. Fortunes are not made with pe's this high. Someone else can have some of my high priced shares-perhaps Mr. Greater Fool will buy them. Playing for the last dime is never a wise idea. Quite frankly I have been a bit surprised that Bob has not mentioned taking at least some money off the table. Yes, I realize he has told people to reallocate but what I am talking about is an overall lower exposure to an equity market where there is no room for error.

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