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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)
ASND 210.01+1.7%Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: MMW who wrote (60570)4/5/1999 1:13:00 PM
From: Techplayer  Read Replies (1) of 61433
 
Mike,

This was from the 3rd quarter statement. In addition to a delay from NTT which has been subsequently shipped, this was in there...

Book-to-bill remained greater than 1 and net deferred revenue increased
sequentially. Management declined to give specific information on deferred
revenue, other than to state that core systems was a significant portion of
the increase.

From a product perspective, we were somewhat surprised at the strength in
access and weakness in core systems. The softness in core systems was
attributed to delays in delivering software features on the Company's core
ATM switches for NTT, the largest telephone Company in Asia/Pacific.
Ascend expects the software to be available by the end of October, with NTT
taking product beginning in early November. We believe this quarter's
revenue profile is the exact opposite of Ascend's future growth potential,
and continue to expect core systems to grow faster than access, thereby
increasing as a percentage of sales.

I also believe that IP switch routing will eventually erode this growth, but it will probably take longer than Cisco and others expect. LU had better get wire speed routing built into these boxes soon. The acquisition of a Juniper would go a long way to setting up LU for the long term.

I have been vocal before on the treatment of core switching products and revenue by the west coast management. Not only have they treated the old Cascade people as 2nd class citizens, they have given the perception that the primary growth and profit margins have been generated by the lower margin products out there.

Brian
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