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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 680.44+0.6%4:00 PM EST

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To: Robert Graham who wrote (9858)4/5/1999 2:01:00 PM
From: StockOperator  Read Replies (2) of 99985
 
Robert,

I hope you don't mind my two cents. I enjoyed your observations. But I would ask you whether or not this sentiment is more apparent during consolidating patterns. Similar to the last couple of months that we've seen for the indexes. During this time the volatility is only increased because of the ongoing battle between the bulls and the bears. Now however, with the NAZ breaking into new highs and the DOW pushing into the 10,000 area again. We might be seeing a shift in that battle. With the bulls having the obvious momentum. And if that's true, the volatility may actually lessen as some of the bears cover their positions AND take new ones, to prepare for the next leg up. If the markets are able to hold these gains and build on them many will view this as the train leaving the station.

I do believe you are correct when you say many view the markets as gamblers in Vegas. The boon in daytrading is proof of that. But yet any major breakout from a consolidating pattern like on the DOW is probably the result of huge amounts of capital changing hands. Most likely serious institutional money. Of course the popularity of indexing may equate in the long run with the pull of that one armed bandit. But predicting that would be like going to the Epilogue without reading the first couple of chapters.

Good luck trading.

SO
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