Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum

WDC 140.23

-8.9%

Nov 20 3:59 PM EST

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To: Mark Oliver who wrote (6017)	4/5/1999 10:36:00 PM
From: jfrancis	Read Replies (1) of 9256

Mark, thanks for your insights. My average cost on htch is $19/share. I was buying it in the 20's down into the teens and was going to tough it out believing it's fair value was in the 70's. So when it finally took off,and they came out with the secondary at $45, I didn't sell any and watched it go back down to the 20's wondering what happened. It seems they are still saying they will make about $3.50/share next year, and they have been growing at around 20%. So a 20x multiple should give us a fair value of around $70, and that seems conservative to me. But now I am wondering. It is hard to know what a conservative fair value should be on htch. I used to think this stock in a year or so would be over $100 given it's earnings and growth rate. Now I'm just not sure how to evaluate it. Has the story changed that much? At this point, what do you think it's earnings and growth rate will be next year? Thanks, jf

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